Lion Group Holding Ltd (NASDAQ: LGHL) carries approximately $586 million in undrawn convertible-note capacity — more than 1,500 times the company's entire equity value of roughly $383,000. That single ratio is the defining structural fact for any participant in this name.
ShareStructure assigns LGHL a dilution risk score of 10 out of 10 — Extreme.
The conversion machine
Three senior secured convertible notes issued in June, July, and December 2025 to ATW Digital Asset Opportunities VI LLC convert at a market-linked price — meaning the number of shares the lender receives rises as the stock falls. The mechanism has already expanded the underlying Class A ordinary share count from 16.4 billion to roughly 270 billion in ten months, a 1,544% increase. Every conversion share is pre-registered for immediate resale under an F-3 shelf registration (No. 333-289794), so new supply hits the open market the moment it is created.
The notes also bear interest at 12% if paid in ADSs — a form of share-settled interest that layers continuous issuance on top of principal conversions.
A float measured in tens of thousands
After five ADS-ratio reverse splits since 2023 — cumulative ratio: 1-for-585,000 — only about 46,144 ADSs exist. That count is effectively the entire public float. There is no quantifiable insider or institutional lock-up; the shares are overwhelmingly conversion shares that were sold immediately upon issuance.
How thin is that float? A single high-frequency market-making firm, HRT Financial LP, reported positions between 31,125 and 86,647 ADSs across five Form 4 filings in eleven days this past August — repeatedly crossing the 5% and 10% ownership reporting thresholds with ordinary trading inventory. The tradeable base is so small that routine market-making triggers insider-filing requirements.
Reverse splits that retire nothing
Critically, the three most recent ratio changes (1-for-13 in November 2025, 1-for-9 in July 2026, 1-for-20 in September 2026) are executed as ADS-ratio adjustments, not as retirements of underlying ordinary shares. They reset the quoted ADS price so the conversion process can continue, but the 270 billion ordinary shares remain on the books. Any float data sourced before the September 10, 2026 split is overstated by at least 20 times.
One lender controls the capital structure
Three ATW-affiliated funds, all under common control of managing members Kerry Propper and Antonio Ruiz-Gimenez, hold every convertible instrument and all nine outstanding warrant series (D through L). Those warrants cover approximately 15,161 ADS-equivalents — equal to roughly 33% of the current float. Nominal strike prices range from $9,360 to $222,300 per current ADS, placing them far out of the money today, but multiple series are described as "as amended," establishing that repricing has already occurred.
The ATW group also holds a first-priority security interest in all company assets, including the HYPE, SOL, and SUI crypto tokens that 75% of every note's proceeds must be used to purchase.
What the data does not resolve
The prospectus filings are internally contradictory on two critical variables: the ADS-to-ordinary-share ratio (printed as both 2,500:1 and 1:1 in the same document) and the December Note's conversion floor (printed as both $0.6004 per ADS and $0.0002973 per share, figures that are mutually inconsistent). Third-party data feeds that ingest these filings inherit the errors, making independent float reconstruction unreliable in either direction.
An additional 474 ADS-equivalents sit in an unregistered January 2025 debenture held by ATW Opportunities Master Fund II LP, convertible at a fixed price — a small but hidden overhang that becomes free-trading supply only upon a new registration statement or Rule 144 seasoning.