Jaguar Health, Inc. (NASDAQ: JAGX) carries a dilution risk score of 9 out of 10 — the highest tier on the ShareStructure scale — driven by a constellation of active, overlapping share-creation mechanisms sized at roughly 4.9 times the company's tradeable float.
The pharmaceutical company's share count tells the story in a single number: split-adjusted shares outstanding went from 13,289 at year-end 2025 to 1,945,542 as of September 25 — a 146-fold increase in nine months. Two reverse splits compressed those shares along the way, a 1-for-35 in April and a 1-for-15 in September, the seventh and eighth such resets since 2018.
The float
The tradeable float — shares available for public trading, excluding insider and restricted holdings — sits at approximately 1.78 million shares. Insiders hold a negligible 597 shares combined. Put differently, nearly 100% of outstanding stock is in public hands, and functionally all of it can trade freely right now.
Where the overhang lives
The largest single block of potential new supply comes from Series Q Perpetual Preferred stock, held by Uptown Capital and Streeterville Capital, both entities linked to John M. Fife. These 884 preferred shares carry $22.1 million in stated value. The company can exchange them into common stock at the lower of the prior closing price or the five-day average closing price — a variable-rate mechanism with no minimum conversion price, meaning every decline in the stock mechanically increases the number of shares produced. At recent levels that formula yields roughly 3.67 million common shares. That is 2.1 times the entire float from this one instrument alone.
Streeterville, one of the Fife entities, also received 1,211,573 freely tradeable shares between September 23 and 25 through Section 3(a)(9) exchanges — a statutory swap of debt for equity that requires no new registration. Those shares equaled 62% of the company's total outstanding count.
Additional supply channels
Beyond the preferred, three other mechanisms are live:
ATM facility — an at-the-market program, which lets the company sell shares directly into the open market at prevailing prices through agent Ladenburg Thalmann. Capacity was reloaded to $9.82 million on September 24, roughly 1.63 million shares and 92% of the current float. About $4.69 million had been sold through the facility in the three weeks prior.
Streeterville 2021 Note — approximately $1.5 million remains on a secured convertible note maturing October 1. Recent exchanges priced at $9.22 and $7.06 per share.
C/M Capital ELOC — an equity line of credit, a standby arrangement where the company can sell shares to a committed buyer at a discount. This line has 2.67 million purchase shares registered, priced at 95% of the lowest reference price — meaning the buyer pays 5% below the worst of VWAP (volume-weighted average price), the five-day low, or the closing price. Its floor price of roughly $16.50 currently keeps it dormant, but any sustained move above that level would activate the line.
In total, about 8.73 million shares could enter the float within twelve months. That is 4.9 times the current tradeable supply.
Structure, not speculation
JAGX has 500 million shares authorized against fewer than 2 million outstanding, leaving enormous headroom for issuance without a shareholder vote. Cash on hand was $3.79 million against a quarterly burn rate of $5.6 million — less than one quarter of runway — which makes continued use of these equity-conversion facilities a near-term structural certainty rather than a hypothetical.
The Streeterville 2021 Note matures October 1, and royalty-interest payments that can be settled in stock restart the same day.